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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Mai 2020

Mai 2020 - Juin 2020 - Juillet 2020 - Août 2020 - Septembre 2020 - Octobre 2020


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/04/2020 12Z+1.1 °C+0.5 °C+1.5 °C+1 °C+1.3 °C+0.3 °C+2.8 °C
20/04/2020 06Z-0.8 °C+-0 °C-0.3 °C+0.5 °C-0.1 °C-1.8 °C+0.1 °C
20/04/2020 00Z+4.1 °C+2.6 °C+4.5 °C+3.7 °C+4.4 °C+2.7 °C+5.4 °C
19/04/2020 18Z+0.2 °C+0.4 °C+0 °C+0.6 °C+0.5 °C-0.3 °C+2.4 °C
19/04/2020 12Z+3.1 °C+1.7 °C+2.8 °C+2.6 °C+3 °C+1.4 °C+3.6 °C
19/04/2020 06Z+1.2 °C+1.3 °C+1.9 °C+2.1 °C+1.6 °C+0.4 °C+2.8 °C
19/04/2020 00Z-0.6 °C-0.7 °C-1 °C+0.8 °C+0.1 °C-2.1 °C+0.7 °C
18/04/2020 18Z+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C-1.1 °C+1.5 °C
18/04/2020 12Z+0.2 °C+1 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+0.5 °C+0.1 °C+2 °C
18/04/2020 06Z-0.5 °C-0.1 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C-0.2 °C-1.7 °C+0.8 °C
18/04/2020 00Z+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C+0.5 °C-1.5 °C+0.3 °C
17/04/2020 18Z+3.2 °C+1.4 °C+4.7 °C+3.9 °C+3.8 °C+1.5 °C+3.6 °C
17/04/2020 12Z+0.9 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+1.2 °C-0.7 °C+1.8 °C
17/04/2020 06Z-1.6 °C-1.8 °C-2.5 °C-0.8 °C-1.3 °C-3.1 °C+0.1 °C
17/04/2020 00Z-0.3 °C-1 °C-0.4 °C+0.7 °C+0.3 °C-2 °C+0.6 °C
16/04/2020 18Z-1.7 °C-1.5 °C-1.2 °C+0.4 °C-1.1 °C-3.4 °C-1.2 °C
16/04/2020 12Z-0.5 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C-1.7 °C+0.8 °C
16/04/2020 06Z+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C+1.9 °C+1.2 °C-0.9 °C+0.9 °C
16/04/2020 00Z-0.9 °C-0.7 °C-0.4 °C+0.7 °C-0.2 °C-2.4 °C+0.2 °C
15/04/2020 18Z-1 °C+0.1 °C+-0 °C+0.6 °C-0.9 °C-1.6 °C+0.2 °C
15/04/2020 12Z-0.9 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C-0.8 °C-1 °C+0.4 °C
15/04/2020 06Z+1 °C-0.3 °C+-0 °C+1.2 °C+2 °C-1 °C+1.9 °C
15/04/2020 00Z-1.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.4 °C-1.5 °C-2.4 °C-0.5 °C
14/04/2020 18Z+1.5 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+1.4 °C+1.7 °C+0.2 °C+2.8 °C
14/04/2020 12Z-0.6 °C+0.9 °C+0.2 °C+0.4 °C-0.2 °C-0.8 °C+0.7 °C
14/04/2020 06Z+1.4 °C+0.3 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+1.5 °C-0.1 °C+2.4 °C
14/04/2020 00Z+0.1 °C+0.6 °C+0.5 °C+0.9 °C+0.4 °C-0.7 °C+2 °C
13/04/2020 18Z+-0 °C+1.7 °C+1.7 °C+0.6 °C-0.3 °C+0.6 °C+2.2 °C
13/04/2020 12Z+0.3 °C-0.5 °C-0.5 °C+1 °C+1.2 °C-2 °C+1.3 °C
13/04/2020 06Z+2 °C+1.1 °C+2.4 °C+2.1 °C+2.1 °C+0.6 °C+3 °C
Moyenne+0.3 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C+0.7 °C-0.8 °C+1.5 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/04/2020 12Z+1.6 °C+0.1 °C+1.1 °C+0.5 °C+1.8 °C+1.5 °C+2.2 °C
20/04/2020 06Z-0.1 °C-0.4 °C-1 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C-0.9 °C-0.9 °C
20/04/2020 00Z+5 °C+2.8 °C+4.2 °C+4.5 °C+4.9 °C+4.2 °C+5 °C
19/04/2020 18Z+0.3 °C+0.3 °C+-0 °C-0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C
19/04/2020 12Z+3.5 °C+1.1 °C+2.7 °C+3.2 °C+3.8 °C+2.7 °C+2.7 °C
19/04/2020 06Z+1.6 °C+0.9 °C+1.4 °C+1.4 °C+1.9 °C+1.5 °C+1.8 °C
19/04/2020 00Z-0.3 °C-1.8 °C-1.9 °C-0.6 °C+0.3 °C-1.2 °C-0.4 °C
18/04/2020 18Z+0.4 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.5 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C
18/04/2020 12Z+0.6 °C+1.1 °C+0.7 °C+-0 °C+0.4 °C+1.1 °C+1 °C
18/04/2020 06Z-0.2 °C-1.6 °C-0.8 °C-0.8 °C+0.1 °C-0.8 °C+0 °C
18/04/2020 00Z+0.4 °C-0.8 °C+0.1 °C+1.3 °C+0.6 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C
17/04/2020 18Z+4.4 °C+1.5 °C+5.1 °C+5.1 °C+4.7 °C+2.9 °C+3.1 °C
17/04/2020 12Z+1.3 °C-0.2 °C+1.4 °C+1.8 °C+1.5 °C+0.2 °C+0.9 °C
17/04/2020 06Z-1.3 °C-3 °C-2.7 °C-2.4 °C-1 °C-2.1 °C-0.7 °C
17/04/2020 00Z+0.1 °C-1.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.2 °C+0.5 °C-1 °C-0.3 °C
16/04/2020 18Z-1.7 °C-2.6 °C-1.8 °C-1 °C-1.3 °C-2.7 °C-2.3 °C
16/04/2020 12Z-0.5 °C-1.5 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-0.1 °C-0.6 °C-0.4 °C
16/04/2020 06Z+0.9 °C-0.3 °C+0.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.2 °C-0.1 °C-0.1 °C
16/04/2020 00Z-1.2 °C-1.1 °C-1 °C-1 °C-0.8 °C-1.6 °C-1.1 °C
15/04/2020 18Z-0.9 °C-0.5 °C-0.8 °C-0.3 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C-1.1 °C
15/04/2020 12Z-0.9 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.2 °C-1.1 °C+0.1 °C-0.8 °C
15/04/2020 06Z+1.7 °C-1.4 °C-0.8 °C+0.2 °C+2.4 °C-0.2 °C+1.3 °C
15/04/2020 00Z-2.1 °C-1.3 °C-1.7 °C-2.5 °C-2.2 °C-1.5 °C-1.8 °C
14/04/2020 18Z+1.9 °C-0.4 °C+0.1 °C+1 °C+2.2 °C+1.3 °C+2.1 °C
14/04/2020 12Z-0.1 °C+0.7 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.1 °C+0.5 °C-0.1 °C
14/04/2020 06Z+1.8 °C-0.6 °C+0.8 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+0.9 °C+1.6 °C
14/04/2020 00Z+1 °C-0.4 °C-0.6 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C+0.4 °C+1.3 °C
13/04/2020 18Z+0.1 °C+2.7 °C+1.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C+1.7 °C+0.9 °C
13/04/2020 12Z+0.3 °C-1.9 °C-0.9 °C-0.3 °C+1 °C-0.7 °C+0.6 °C
13/04/2020 06Z+2.3 °C+0.8 °C+2.1 °C+2.2 °C+2.3 °C+1.8 °C+2.3 °C
Moyenne+0.7 °C-0.3 °C+0.2 °C+0.5 °C+0.9 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/04/2020 12Z+78.2 %+42.6 %+57.9 %-42 %+6.6 %-9.4 %-34 %
20/04/2020 06Z+32 %-5.7 %+14.2 %+52.2 %-3.1 %+46.1 %+8.5 %
20/04/2020 00Z-22.1 %-14.2 %+7.1 %-39.8 %-56.4 %-55.6 %-45.3 %
19/04/2020 18Z+62.8 %-42.4 %+104.5 %+35.2 %+7.8 %+0.8 %+15.1 %
19/04/2020 12Z+12.6 %+33.4 %+80.3 %-61.3 %-24.1 %-26.8 %-38.6 %
19/04/2020 06Z+43.1 %-50.1 %+41.8 %+14.5 %-16.1 %-14 %-15.3 %
19/04/2020 00Z+16.4 %-47.3 %+90.6 %-50.2 %-19.4 %-18 %-15.9 %
18/04/2020 18Z-17.7 %-25.5 %+96.8 %-33.6 %-59.4 %-6.8 %-57.1 %
18/04/2020 12Z+66.1 %-61.9 %+67.6 %-2.3 %+59.6 %-8.1 %-6.4 %
18/04/2020 06Z-19.1 %+71.8 %-2 %-39.2 %-26.2 %+21.9 %-31.9 %
18/04/2020 00Z+18.2 %-80.4 %-19.2 %-31.3 %-21.6 %-17.8 %+13.8 %
17/04/2020 18Z-35.8 %-72.9 %-57.2 %+15.7 %-45.1 %-64.4 %-50 %
17/04/2020 12Z+94.3 %+111.2 %+114.6 %-12.3 %+32.2 %+16.2 %+37.9 %
17/04/2020 06Z+96.1 %+136.3 %+188.3 %-58.4 %+66.5 %+9.7 %+26.5 %
17/04/2020 00Z+21.2 %+14.2 %+62.3 %-7.7 %-4 %-3 %-20.7 %
16/04/2020 18Z+18.1 %-23.4 %+78.4 %+1.6 %-16.3 %-16.2 %-10.3 %
16/04/2020 12Z+47.6 %+22.2 %+81.6 %+18.1 %+53.3 %-30.8 %-27 %
16/04/2020 06Z+65.4 %-56.8 %-12.3 %+18.7 %+31 %-17 %-3 %
16/04/2020 00Z+3 %-32.8 %+28.8 %+48.7 %-3 %-22.8 %-30.2 %
15/04/2020 18Z-26.3 %-9.1 %-0.3 %-37.6 %-20.2 %-26.2 %-17.3 %
15/04/2020 12Z-30.3 %-23 %+16.2 %+15.3 %-37.5 %-9.3 %-27.7 %
15/04/2020 06Z+67.9 %+58.4 %+42.1 %-43.3 %-9.8 %+37 %+0.9 %
15/04/2020 00Z+21.1 %+17.8 %-8.8 %+0.2 %-12.2 %-41.5 %-37.7 %
14/04/2020 18Z+27.3 %-64.8 %+40.1 %+42.6 %-3.4 %-17.5 %-11.9 %
14/04/2020 12Z-34.4 %+25.5 %+0.4 %-13.1 %-45 %+28 %+21.7 %
14/04/2020 06Z+61.1 %+229.6 %+98.2 %-57 %-28.5 %+68.7 %-7.3 %
14/04/2020 00Z-46.1 %+114.4 %+28 %-82.7 %-67.1 %-0.7 %-19.6 %
13/04/2020 18Z+41.6 %-50.3 %+14.3 %+41.3 %+44.6 %-2.2 %+7.6 %
13/04/2020 12Z+30.4 %-55.1 %+58.6 %-33.8 %-3.3 %-26.9 %-11.6 %
13/04/2020 06Z+43.4 %+77.6 %+31.5 %+1.4 %+23.6 %-8.7 %+15.7 %
Moyenne+24.5 %+8 %+44.8 %-11.3 %-6.6 %-7.2 %-12.4 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/04/2020 12Z-1.5 hPa+-0 hPa-2.6 hPa-1.1 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.8 hPa-1 hPa
20/04/2020 06Z+1.4 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa
20/04/2020 00Z+3 hPa+3.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+2 hPa+3.3 hPa+3.3 hPa+3.5 hPa
19/04/2020 18Z-1.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.6 hPa-1 hPa-1.6 hPa
19/04/2020 12Z+1.7 hPa+1.1 hPa-1.2 hPa+2 hPa+3 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.8 hPa
19/04/2020 06Z-0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa-2 hPa-1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.3 hPa
19/04/2020 00Z+1.5 hPa-0.5 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.9 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.3 hPa
18/04/2020 18Z+2 hPa-0.5 hPa+1.2 hPa+3.3 hPa+3 hPa+0 hPa+1.3 hPa
18/04/2020 12Z+1 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.5 hPa+1 hPa
18/04/2020 06Z-1.9 hPa-3.5 hPa-4.2 hPa-1.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-3.5 hPa-2.7 hPa
18/04/2020 00Z+1 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.3 hPa+3 hPa+1.2 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.6 hPa
17/04/2020 18Z+4.4 hPa+5.7 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.9 hPa+4.5 hPa+5.3 hPa+5.6 hPa
17/04/2020 12Z-3.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-4.4 hPa-3 hPa-2.5 hPa-3.1 hPa-3.1 hPa
17/04/2020 06Z-5.8 hPa-4.8 hPa-5.3 hPa-3.4 hPa-5.4 hPa-5.6 hPa-6.1 hPa
17/04/2020 00Z-0.5 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa
16/04/2020 18Z-0.2 hPa-1 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.8 hPa-0.2 hPa-0.2 hPa
16/04/2020 12Z-0.2 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.3 hPa+-0 hPa
16/04/2020 06Z+0.6 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.9 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.3 hPa
16/04/2020 00Z+1.4 hPa+1 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.7 hPa
15/04/2020 18Z-0.8 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.1 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.4 hPa
15/04/2020 12Z-0.3 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.2 hPa+-0 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.2 hPa
15/04/2020 06Z-1.6 hPa-3 hPa-2 hPa+0.4 hPa-0.6 hPa-3 hPa-2.5 hPa
15/04/2020 00Z-0.3 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.1 hPa+0 hPa-0.3 hPa-1 hPa-0.7 hPa
14/04/2020 18Z+0.2 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.4 hPa
14/04/2020 12Z+1.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+2 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.5 hPa
14/04/2020 06Z-2.3 hPa-1.1 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.3 hPa-2.2 hPa-1.9 hPa
14/04/2020 00Z+1.2 hPa-2.1 hPa-0.6 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.1 hPa-1.5 hPa-0.5 hPa
13/04/2020 18Z-1.5 hPa+0.2 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.3 hPa-2 hPa-0.2 hPa-1 hPa
13/04/2020 12Z+1.7 hPa+1 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.7 hPa+2 hPa+1 hPa+1 hPa
13/04/2020 06Z-2.5 hPa-1.7 hPa-3.5 hPa-3.3 hPa-2.1 hPa-2.1 hPa-2.3 hPa
Moyenne-0.1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.2 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1982-2010. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une 4 tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 
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